• Last Updated:
  • Mar 3rd, 2009 3:52 pm
[OP]
Jr. Member
Oct 4, 2008
102 posts
Calgary

Where is the bottom?

With the Dow making a new low today looks like there is another wave of down coming.

Does anyone think that the TSX will not follow the Dow if it keeps sinking?
38 replies
Sr. Member
Jul 20, 2007
801 posts
4 upvotes
Aha! The crowd, or majority is always wrong. When everyone thinks the bottom is nowhere to be found, the bottom is actually very very close. See the blog in my signature for stock market prediction for the next 2 months.
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QuesTrader (a.k.a. Uncanny Wizard, President and CEO of http://stockmagic.wordpress.com )
Deal Addict
User avatar
Jul 31, 2007
2043 posts
178 upvotes
York Region
aww1970 wrote: With the Dow making a new low today looks like there is another wave of down coming.

Does anyone think that the TSX will not follow the Dow if it keeps sinking?
The trouble is no one knows. If I know I will be a very rich.
Deal Addict
Mar 27, 2003
1456 posts
811 upvotes
Vancouver
The bottom would be . . . . . NOW!

Doh you're too late now.
Deal Addict
Feb 9, 2005
4172 posts
20 upvotes
aww1970 wrote: With the Dow making a new low today looks like there is another wave of down coming.

Does anyone think that the TSX will not follow the Dow if it keeps sinking?
The Dow is an irrelevant index and the S&P 500 is still above it's 52 week low.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Aug 1, 2007
1459 posts
236 upvotes
I hope it comes soon and world markets begin their huge recoveries. I'm tired of hemorrhaging money. Not too many catalysts out there to cause this though... Maybe if we disable the global media, the bad news would stop coming.
Deal Guru
User avatar
Jun 26, 2005
10078 posts
1943 upvotes
Toronto
Look at what makes up the TSX. Financial and Energy (mostly).

So, when those 2 things come back in the market, TSX will bottom out.

Right now:

Financials = ? Ya, right, credit problems still here, even if our banks aren't the same system as the US banks, what happens to the US banks still affect our side. US banks are in the toilet right now.

Energy = ? Ya right, anyone seen the price of oil lately? Everyone said it won't go below $60.... then $50... then $40.... we're sitting at $35-38 these weeks. Its going to even lower. Millions of jobs lost, companies not getting loans to start new projects = no need energy.


So no, TSX is not bottoming anytime soon. Reassess again in 3 months.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Oct 30, 2001
1125 posts
18 upvotes
This whole mess will take more then 1 year to recover and could be like what happened during the 70's/60's where it lasted for 10+ years.

Cash is king :cheesygri
Deal Fanatic
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Dec 21, 2005
5769 posts
1296 upvotes
London, ON
Hoping the short-term "bottom" was around 115pm today; pretty impressive recovery for the DOW and the S&P
Deal Addict
Jan 11, 2004
4967 posts
560 upvotes
Victoria
If you try and pick the bottom you'll end up with nothing but stinky fingers.
Not a political sig
Sr. Member
Jul 20, 2007
801 posts
4 upvotes
False alarm, guys. Don't let today's late-day rally fool you. The major indices have 1-2 more days of RED (in caps.) coming... The indices need to bleed yet a newer low than today's... That will be the day when all this selling's over...
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Jun 26, 2005
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Toronto
dealguy2 wrote: If you try and pick the bottom you'll end up with nothing but stinky fingers.
Its more to know when the bottom is, and then wait for the market to recovery, THEN you buy in.

If you don't know where the bottom has occurred, how do you know the up tick is actually a true recovery?
Deal Guru
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Jun 26, 2005
10078 posts
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Toronto
voodoo401 wrote: This whole mess will take more then 1 year to recover and could be like what happened during the 70's/60's where it lasted for 10+ years.

Cash is king :cheesygri
+1 wouldn't really imagine it to be 10+ yrs, with the huge stimulus and things the govern. are doing, but probably 5 yrs is my guess.

Yes, Cash is king. Hence I sold off all my funds back in 08 Nov.
Deal Addict
User avatar
Aug 1, 2007
1459 posts
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dealguy2 wrote: If you try and pick the bottom you'll end up with nothing but stinky fingers.
:cheesygri
Sr. Member
Jul 20, 2007
801 posts
4 upvotes
2009/02/20 - Magic Trick #002: Filling the gap! (See signature).
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QuesTrader (a.k.a. Uncanny Wizard, President and CEO of http://stockmagic.wordpress.com )
Member
Feb 9, 2008
395 posts
5 upvotes
China
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/partners ... cture.html

wherever the bottom is, i hope its soon, although it doesnt affect me if its nowhere close. in fact, everytime the market gets a bear rally, i dump some more money in (couple grand), and i will continue to do so in every bear rally (100-200+ points). i'm just seeing this as an opportunity to buy buy buy. ive picked up another 200 shares of BMO today, as well as 130 shares of RY, which now makes my holdings in financials @ 430 RY, 420 TD, 250 BMO, 500 MFC....just gonna keep dumping money in. I guess you guys can call me stupid, but its just that i dont want to time the market so im sticking to this plan of mine ahaha. in terms of emergency cash or what not, i already got a gic ladder set up, as well has have enough money in a high interest savings account to last me over 2 to 3 years, plus i am graduating this year and have a job lol. i guess the only way i will lose money is if this recession will outlive me, and hopefully i will live until at least 80 (so 60 years to go) lol.
Member
Feb 9, 2008
395 posts
5 upvotes
China
i have no debt and living a low standard lifestyle, and also currently living with parents :D , my monthly expenses, including my gas and insurance for car, can be covered with my job pay, so at the moment, unless something crazy happens in my life, i have no need to dig into my savings account.

EDIT: i understand that a lot of people arent in a situation like mine, and lost over 40% of their retirement money and does not have the amount of time as i do to stay in the market, but its just that everyone can just lower their living standard, and im sure you'll make it through. i mean after all, you all got health and a family right, just stay at home with family every weekend like i do, well i do go out like once a week to a freinds house or something (so zero to minimal expenses :D ). until i get a job when i graduate in april, i will be continuing my lifestyle. but once i get a job and my career in place....PARTY!!!
[OP]
Jr. Member
Oct 4, 2008
102 posts
Calgary
questrader wrote: False alarm, guys. Don't let today's late-day rally fool you. The major indices have 1-2 more days of RED (in caps.) coming... The indices need to bleed yet a newer low than today's... That will be the day when all this selling's over...
So you are saying 2 more heavy selling days and the selling is over? As in Bottom?

Pretty bold statement.....


Oh ya- curious what trades you made today to "fill the gap"?
[OP]
Jr. Member
Oct 4, 2008
102 posts
Calgary
AllWheelDrift wrote: The Dow is an irrelevant index and the S&P 500 is still above it's 52 week low.
I think the S&P 500 with more listings may be a better indicator of the economy overall but I would not call the Dow irrelevant....

Sure hope that the S&P can hold above a close of 752, with all of the banking BS it'll be tough.

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