Real Estate

Where is the housing market going?

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Newbie
Jun 4, 2013
21 posts
3 upvotes
Edmonton

Where is the housing market going?

With the elections coming up, trade war still around, where is the housing market looking to go in the next few months? Are house prices going down through the winter or going to go ip after elections etc?
22 replies
Deal Guru
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Sep 8, 2007
10978 posts
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Way Out of GTA
Lower rates, easier credit usually translates into higher prices and eventually lower affordability for those that prefer not to own.

Funny though, that people think a trade war is going to lower the cost of RE.
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Jul 8, 2010
1459 posts
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Ontario
lokko23214 wrote: With the elections coming up, trade war still around, where is the housing market looking to go in the next few months? Are house prices going down through the winter or going to go ip after elections etc?
Who cares? Unless you are looking for quick big money on short timespan, it does not matter. Buying long term - any time is good once you can afford it.
cartfan123 wrote: Lower rates, easier credit usually translates into higher prices and eventually lower affordability for those that prefer not to own.

Funny though, that people think a trade war is going to lower the cost of RE.
Once the pink slips are starting to fly around, everything will be awesome, right?!?!?
Abbas123 wrote: To the moon.
And back....

But lets just wait for Jay and Joseph, they can tell us it is going beyond the moon....
Deal Expert
Feb 29, 2008
21738 posts
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Tarrana & The Ri…
Isostar wrote: Who cares? Unless you are looking for quick big money on short timespan, it does not matter. Buying long term - any time is good once you can afford it.



Once the pink slips are starting to fly around, everything will be awesome, right?!?!?



And back....

But lets just wait for Jay and Joseph, they can tell us it is going beyond the moon....
I wonder if you’re one of the people who has been trying to attack me offline. What I know is I’ve pissed off enough people to the point where they wish harm on me and my family. All it took was for me to be bullish about real estate. Go figure.
Deal Guru
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Sep 8, 2007
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Way Out of GTA
JayLove06 wrote: I wonder if you’re one of the people who has been trying to attack me offline. What I know is I’ve pissed off enough people to the point where they wish harm on me and my family. All it took was for me to be bullish about real estate. Go figure.
Even a condo that was $199 in Malvern in 2014 now went for $415. So even if things came back to $350, that’s a lot way off from $199.

So there’s gonna be a lot of anger. Meanwhile waves upon waves of new immigrants coming in a heating up completion for rentals and for buying entry level properties. They never get the wrath of the priced out renters. Just landlords.
Deal Expert
Feb 29, 2008
21738 posts
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Tarrana & The Ri…
cartfan123 wrote: Even a condo that was $199 in Malvern in 2014 now went for $415. So even if things came back to $350, that’s a lot way off from $199.

So there’s gonna be a lot of anger. Meanwhile waves upon waves of new immigrants coming in a heating up completion for rentals and for buying entry level properties. They never get the wrath of the priced out renters. Just landlords.
I think a lot of homeonwers/investors have so much equity built in that even if prices drop 25%, they're fine. Hell, it allows them to scoop up some deals.
Deal Addict
Jan 2, 2015
1633 posts
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Toronto, ON
lokko23214 wrote: With the elections coming up, trade war still around, where is the housing market looking to go in the next few months? Are house prices going down through the winter or going to go ip after elections etc?
Where? Toronto? Vancouver? Montreal? Ottawa? Pontypool?

They'll probably always go up in general, over the long term, but there could be dips, possibly substantial amounts, in overpriced Toronto and Vancouver.
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Aug 1, 2014
357 posts
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I think steady flow of new immigrants will prevent the US style RE collapse in Canada’s big cities even in case of recession.
Deal Addict
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Jul 8, 2010
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Ontario
JayLove06 wrote: I wonder if you’re one of the people who has been trying to attack me offline. What I know is I’ve pissed off enough people to the point where they wish harm on me and my family. All it took was for me to be bullish about real estate. Go figure.
LOL, I have no idea what you are talking about. Maybe contribute with something documented on the subject?!?

P.S. related to your statement, I have no idea who you are in real life and I do not give a crap about it. As long as we are using alias here, all that we can discuss should be ideas. And considering your contribution is more of a bedtime story than documented facts (get inspired by Mazerbean), even these discussion are going beyond what should be expected as good contribution.
Member
Dec 29, 2017
498 posts
579 upvotes
Isostar wrote: LOL, I have no idea what you are talking about. Maybe contribute with something documented on the subject?!?

P.S. related to your statement, I have no idea who you are in real life and I do not give a crap about it. As long as we are using alias here, all that we can discuss should be ideas. And considering your contribution is more of a bedtime story than documented facts (get inspired by Mazerbean), even these discussion are going beyond what should be expected as good contribution.
Gent's, arguments under aliases are pointless, none of you are placing bets, ultimately there are no winners in any arguments. All it shows is an attempt to attain a sense of individual self-justification.
-done
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
9404 posts
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FoFai2015 wrote: Where? Toronto? Vancouver? Montreal? Ottawa? Pontypool?

They'll probably always go up in general, over the long term, but there could be dips, possibly substantial amounts, in overpriced Toronto and Vancouver.
I don't think anything is for sure anymore especially given how much real estate appreciated over the past 20 years. It is possible with the high cost of home ownership including 5-digit property taxes that continue to increase by 10% YOY, OWNING homes becomes undesirable and the demand for them drops. Who knows. All I know is whatever the past was may no longer be a predictor of the future. Governments are looking under the couch cushions for cash now and if they can stick us with new taxes they will. Great thing about property taxes for the government is that there is literally no way for the homeowner to avoid them. You can't consume less or spend less. You can only sell to get out.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
9404 posts
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JosephB012 wrote: Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto were all deemed the most livable Canadian cities on the list (Canada was tied with Australia for the most cities on the list)


https://globalnews.ca/news/5852527/calg ... economist/
Yes, they kept telling us that "Vancouver is the best place IN THE WORLD to live. There is no place better."

I will bet if you look more closely you will see the real estate industry tied to funding the content of this story either directly or behind the scenes. We all know the con game now that the party is over, at least in Vancouver anyways.
Deal Addict
Apr 18, 2017
1055 posts
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Toronto
choclover wrote:
I don't think anything is for sure anymore especially given how much real estate appreciated over the past 20 years. It is possible with the high cost of home ownership including 5-digit property taxes that continue to increase by 10% YOY, OWNING homes becomes undesirable and the demand for them drops. Who knows. All I know is whatever the past was may no longer be a predictor of the future. Governments are looking under the couch cushions for cash now and if they can stick us with new taxes they will. Great thing about property taxes for the government is that there is literally no way for the homeowner to avoid them. You can't consume less or spend less. You can only sell to get out.
As long as there are foreign investors, it will always be desirable in a city like Toronto. They have so much money to invest. Fix that problem, then you will see a drop. Doesn’t matter how the market goes, there could be dips and if there is, more properties are going to be bought by these type of investors. Locals only option is to rent.

People are delusional if they think housing prices are going to revert back to what it was 10 years ago. And they will keep waiting for that and keep being priced out.
Deal Fanatic
Oct 7, 2007
9404 posts
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hockeyfan1990 wrote: As long as there are foreign investors, it will always be desirable in a city like Toronto. They have so much money to invest. Fix that problem, then you will see a drop. Doesn’t matter how the market goes, there could be dips and if there is, more properties are going to be bought by these type of investors. Locals only option is to rent.

People are delusional if they think housing prices are going to revert back to what it was 10 years ago. And they will keep waiting for that and keep being priced out.
Prices will only drop if sellers take less when selling their properties. I agree with that.

BUT here is the question. If investors are the ones buying, will they pay unlimited funds to hold their properties? If it cost $25k or more a year in property taxes to own a nice middle class detached home, will foreign investors keep holding or will they look to move their money to a more tax-friendly environment. The world is a big place. If I was a foreign investor, I must have been smart with my money to become a foreign investor. Would I still be smart to invest in Vancouver or would I invest somewhere else or in something else?

P.S. The BC government has now introduced a WEALTH tax that forms part of our property taxes and is based on the assessed value of our homes. This is brand new and, in my opinion, subject to legal challenge as Canada has no precedent of charging taxes based on people's wealth. However, they pulled it off and I expect more governments at other levels will use this as a new way of taxing us, not unlike the carbon tax which has been praised worldwide by globalists as a way to save us from the current climate emergency we are facing.
Deal Expert
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Apr 21, 2004
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Since the CRA kinda figured out how foreign investors were not paying capital gains, being abetted by real estate lawyers, maybe there's less inclination to speculate at the current price levels.

Paying cash just means much easier to get around not having to pay capital gains once the properties are sold as there's less scrutiny as to who (under what name) bought the property. I'm sure some of the cash offers are tied to loans back home.

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