Investing

Who / what do you guys follow for credible stock recommendations?

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  • Dec 30th, 2020 9:50 am
[OP]
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Apr 21, 2004
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Who / what do you guys follow for credible stock recommendations?

Whether here on RFD, on ceo.ca, on twitter, elsewhere?

I like @MrMom @rodbarc (will list the others later) posts on RFD

I've never heard of this guy before until this week but someone here on RFD did mention the name early this week when I bought into TRIT lol, Puro Saxena:
https://twitter.com/saxena_puru

Also, only this week, James DePorre, also from TRIT ST:
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/author/ ... e/all.html


Would love to have some compendium of good investors (including track records) to follow for trades, swings, long-term holds. Before this week, I really wasn't following anyone but it seems it is worthwhile to know what people are thinking of buying. I am used to checking RFD posts as well as barchart for ATL's, ATH's, gap downs pretty much. That's how I got initially burned with REV (did buy a lot more and am out) and how I stumbled upon TRIT.
Last edited by alanbrenton on Dec 24th, 2020 7:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
22 replies
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Aug 17, 2008
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Thanks for the compliment @alanbrenton.

I don't follow anyone for equity recommendations.

There are a handful of posters on RFD who's comments I respect, as they have built up a body of credible work. However, I won't act on them just because they suggest or have invested in a company. The same goes for people on other platforms.

Example;
"Credible" = Their posts are usually "I bought XXX" followed with some logical reasoning. Anyone else who says "I bought YYY" and leaves it as that = hard pass. It doesn't matter in the end if the no reasoning person hit a home run. They might as well have been throwing darts as far as I'm concerned.

I have a maybe a handful of people on Twitter who's URL I will check in on daily and a bit more for the occasion peek, but more for the theme of the day or for their analysis of a situation rather than a specific recommendation. I'll take their analysis or observation, what others have said, do my own DD and form my own opinion and action from that.

As for those I "follow" on Twitter, they are all known to have been in the investment industry or their specific industry and I have filtered over time, as opposed to being just some random person with an opinion.

To get back to what @alanbrenton may have been alluding to, there are usually drivers of the RFD bus in various hot sectors. You all know who they are. Just do your own due dili, because no one is responsible or cares more about your money than you.

Update

@PaddyM77101 asked this of me this once before. I'm not on any other forum. I don't follow, check in on or even look at any other forum. I receive a morning SA email and that's it.
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I act similarily to @MrMom (and yes he is very knowledgable and have learnt a tremendous amount from him!) in that I will never take anything straight from anyone. Usually what happens for me is I will read an article or hear a mention of the name. If my curiosity gets to me, I will read the company's annual and quarterly reports, read equity analysis reports on my brokerage platforms, look at competitors and then consider an investment from there.

To me, an investment thesis has to make sense to me and that I understand the trade/investmebt before I act On it.
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Thanks for the kind words @alanbrenton . I don’t follow anyone either, my setup is to screen stocks according to a financial idea and then understand the business behind the stock. Different people have different goals and risk tolerance. I might choose to not invest on a stock, it doesn’t mean that whoever invests there is wrong or is a bad bet, it simply means it doesn’t meet my goals. So everyone should understand their goals and risk tolerance so that they know what they own and what they own - including ETFs, if that’s their choice.

I learned a lot by understanding how many of the great investors out there succeeded by reading their investing books and articles, and that’s why I always believe that anyone can succeed at investing too - regardless their style. The most important skill is temperament, discipline, which is hard to develop and has nothing to do with intelligence, it’s a soft skill. Consistency is key, and if one can maintain that no matter how the market does and no matter how the people around us do, it will be very rewarding in the long term. Obviously consistency doesn’t mean stubbornness, we should always pay attention where the world is going and what companies/ sectors will prosper from it, and if you do that consistently, you will do well. Just need patience because it takes time.


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I read and watch all kinds of stuff. Seeking Alpha is probably #1. I like Josh Brown, Lyn Alden, Ben Carlson, Garth Turner. I like to follow along with what hedge funds are up to. I watch random YouTube videos: dividend guy, Nick Ward, Griffin Milks, Fast Graphs, Ark Invest, Stock Trades, Compound Show, Larry Berman, belangp, Ben Felix, Justin Bender. I also monitor Stockchase for BNN contributor opinions.

I don’t copy anyone but I am looking for ideas. If multiple of my sources are recommending the same investment, then obviously that has greater weight. There’s also some good investors on this forum whose opinion I take into account.

The opinions from these sources are diverse and often contradictory. I think confirmation bias is a huge issue with investing, so I think it’s important to learn from a diverse group.
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Jul 23, 2007
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I just follow the old codgers like myself. Tom Connolly 80 who's been buying and holding Canadian dividend growth equites since 1984. Henry Mah 78 who loves his Canadian rising yield stocks. David Stanley 81 who started the BTSX portfolio a few decades ago. No stock picks which is fine by me, and no glamour equities either. Stocks just perfect for widows and orphans. One thing we all have in common, we've been through a few bear markets in our lifetimes.

Quote of the day from Canadian economist Kenneth Galbraith via value investor Larry Sarbit who's been in the market since I first started investing in the early 1980's.

“The old generation must die off so a new set of idiots can make the same mistakes all over again.”
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Jun 2, 2020
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V5y1v1
Here's a list of stuff that I like reading - some of it more economics focused but maybe there will be some stuff there that works for you.

Podcasts
Macrovoices
Hedgeye's "the call" - technically not a podcast but an audio recording of their daily strategy updates - they had a promo for $1/mo for a few months - some compelling ideas there

Twitter
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader
https://twitter.com/JulietteJDI
https://twitter.com/muddywatersre
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact
https://twitter.com/LukeGromen
https://twitter.com/ttmygh
https://twitter.com/HedgeyeDDale
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
https://twitter.com/zerohedge
https://twitter.com/data168
https://twitter.com/TicTocTick
https://twitter.com/saxena_puru
https://twitter.com/choffstein
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie
https://twitter.com/Hedgeye
https://twitter.com/chamath
https://twitter.com/chigrl
https://twitter.com/CathieDWood

The Marketear - used to be a great webservice but now is behind a pay wall - the daily emails are still free though

Hedgeye's - long product - also trialed this service for cheap a few months ago - all of their picks were well supported - of the ones I chose to buy I'm 280% up on one (MP) and 10% down on the other (CLVR) so do with that what you will.

There's a daily investing mailer with the Globe and Mail that is free and gives ideas and market leaders - it's nice to have a look at and see what's flying if you don't want to run a screener.

Youtube
I enjoy Ben Felix, Coldfusion, Sven Carlin, Daniel Pronk and Aswath Damodaran quite a bit

Reddit
I like the Undervalued, Securities analysis and value investing subreddits. Stock market, stocks, canadian investor and investing subreddits can be ok as well but are very noisy

Seeking alpha
I'll look at sometimes but I find it very noisy as well

Reading and tracking down interviews with some of the greats
There are a few investors that I really admire, I try to read or watch anything that they put out. These include: Joel Greenblatt, Stanley Drunkenmiller, Bill Ackman, David Einhorn, Howard Marks, and Warren B. You can find what alot of the major hedgefund investors were recently holding at https://www.dataroma.com/m/managers.php I find it a nice place to browse.
[OP]
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^ thanks for the compendium. Much appreciated.
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Jan 14, 2013
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I'm a pretty lazy investor. I follow @rodbarc for a lot of good dividend growth stuff and will usually ask him outright what his thoughts on company X are if I'm looking to make a purchase. There used to (still is?) be a user on here who was all over preferred shares. It sounded like he could spot a value spot with great long term yield from a mile away. Not sure if they still operate on this forum.

For RRSP stuff, I'm just a couch potato guy. For trading, I'll be honest and say that I either sink a lot into one company when undervalued (recent trades being SU/BNS) or play momentum (DND, LAC) and usually posts in this forum act as a catalyst, I do some dd and act appropriately.

If I see one user "pumping" a stock incessantly, I'll stay away for the most part.
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Jul 23, 2007
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areyoukiddingme2k13 wrote: I'm a pretty lazy investor. I follow @rodbarc for a lot of good dividend growth stuff and will usually ask him outright what his thoughts on company X are if I'm looking to make a purchase. There used to (still is?) be a user on here who was all over preferred shares. It sounded like he could spot a value spot with great long term yield from a mile away. Not sure if they still operate on this forum.

For RRSP stuff, I'm just a couch potato guy. For trading, I'll be honest and say that I either sink a lot into one company when undervalued (recent trades being SU/BNS) or play momentum (DND, LAC) and usually posts in this forum act as a catalyst, I do some dd and act appropriately.

If I see one user "pumping" a stock incessantly, I'll stay away for the most part.
I don't invest in them myself but I do know that James Hymas has a lot of experience in Canadian preferred share investing. Like you say always do your dd.

http://www.himivest.com/
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Feb 26, 2017
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I follow @rodbarc here for DGI and his DGI thread helped me out a lot in a time when I was building my portfolio up. I feel a lot more confident with my strategy than I did when I started posting in 2017. Some of the other posters who I like their analysis / investing style, @treva84 , @xgbsSS @STP123, @Stryker .

I follow John Heinzl on the G&M who has a Yield Hog Canadian Dividend Growth Portfolio that's is similar to my own strategy.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/authors/john-heinzl/

From Seeking Alpha I follow the author Chowder. Its challenged some of my ideas about investing and valuation. He's focused on buying high quality companies and building winning positions while closing the underperforming ones.

https://seekingalpha.com/author/chowder ... instablogs

Nicholas Ward is another good one and he's outperformed the S&P 500 while doing DGI.

https://seekingalpha.com/author/nichola ... r_articles

Here are some more that I like for their analysis:

Brad Thomas (US REITs)
https://seekingalpha.com/author/brad-th ... r_articles

Micheal Boyd (Mostly Energy)
https://seekingalpha.com/author/michael ... r_articles

Ian Bezek (Lots of Latin American Stocks and ideas I don't see much)
https://seekingalpha.com/author/ian-bez ... r_articles

George Fisher (Mostly Utilities)
https://seekingalpha.com/author/george- ... r_articles

Dividend Sensei (Great Analysis but be careful with his picks as he seems to have done badly as an investor. I think he got wiped out due to leverage in March)
https://seekingalpha.com/author/dividen ... r_articles

Canadian DGI Stocks

https://seekingalpha.com/author/ploutos ... r_articles
https://seekingalpha.com/author/mat-lit ... r_articles
https://seekingalpha.com/author/dividen ... r_articles

US DGI stocks

https://seekingalpha.com/author/dividen ... r_articles
https://seekingalpha.com/author/investm ... r_articles
https://seekingalpha.com/author/eli-ink ... r_articles
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Aug 16, 2015
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Just put it all in the fed 500 and call it a day. No need to pick stocks.
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Nov 22, 2015
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Check out ACInvestor on stocktwits, Paranoid Profit on Youtube and @Actuary20 of RFD. And anyone else with solid ideas.
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Canada, Eh!!
I listen to everybody and anybody that has an opinion.

Then I digest and filter and put in my 2 cents and voila hopefully a winning recipe.

Anybody that presents an opposite view that is logical with minimal bias gets a wee bit more attention from me as well.

I am a bad investor however I am a good discriminate listener that is willing to learn.
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alanbrenton wrote: Would love to have some compendium of good investors (including track records) to follow for trades, swings, long-term holds.
IMO, the only reason to consider a stock recommendation to be credible is if the person making the recommendation has a verifiable long term track record. Such people are very thin on the ground.
[OP]
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CheapScotch wrote: IMO, the only reason to consider a stock recommendation to be credible is if the person making the recommendation has a verifiable long term track record. Such people are very thin on the ground.
I think just bringing up some potential recommendation to allow for us to do due diligence on a company is already worthwhile. There are various ways to screen/filter and there could be hidden gems.
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alanbrenton wrote: I think just bringing up some potential recommendation to allow for us to do due diligence on a company is already worthwhile. There are various ways to screen/filter and there could be hidden gems.
If the person making the recommendation is unable to pick a stock portfolio which will beat the market over the long term, I don't think the recommendation will add value to this process. They are just as likely to miss the "hidden gem" as to hit it, in which case your due diligence process will miss it as well.
[OP]
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CheapScotch wrote: If the person making the recommendation is unable to pick a stock portfolio which will beat the market over the long term, I don't think the recommendation will add value to this process. They are just as likely to miss the "hidden gem" as to hit it, in which case your due diligence process will miss it as well.
I have a friend who works for an Investment Company that is suppose to have a long-term investment horizon. The owner would complain why his picks would in some quarters underperform the market during crazy times but of course have lower downside when the markets are tanking. This is US equities. Even CFA's can underperform with all their tools and investment experience. He also told me that their prime broker RBC seem to be front-running their orders as they work their buys or sells out lol.

Sometimes there's the element of luck too because we are retail investors and are more flexible and don't have to stick to any investment mandate. We can also invest just as companies will start turning the corner and show steady or big revenue growth. Most big funds will need to wait before they can touch these companies.

I'll take my chances. It may not be a gem after all but better than not having known the potential at all. Like you said, someone could recommend it and after further review, it may turn out to be not my cup of tea.
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CheapScotch wrote: If the person making the recommendation is unable to pick a stock portfolio which will beat the market over the long term, I don't think the recommendation will add value to this process. They are just as likely to miss the "hidden gem" as to hit it, in which case your due diligence process will miss it as well.
I disagree that you should ascribe value to performance (outcome), because there's two components you have to get right to outperform - the idea, and the execution. You can learn from other peoples ideas independent of their execution. If they fail on the execution, then you can also learn from their mistakes as well.

I think that long term success (in life, and investing) about focusing on the process, rather than the outcome. You can refine your process continually by learning from other peoples' processes.
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treva84 wrote: You can learn from other peoples ideas independent of their execution. If they fail on the execution, then you can also learn from their mistakes as well.
We are (or ought to be) learning new things every day of our lives whatever we do. I just don't think it is worth an individual investor's time trying to learn anything worthwhile from a person whose recommendations don't beat the market in the long term since you can get market returns with very little time/effort.
treva84 wrote: I think that long term success (in life, and investing) about focusing on the process, rather than the outcome. You can refine your process continually by learning from other peoples' processes.
To each his/her own. Personally, I focus on the outcome of my investing effort to help finance the process of all the other things I do in my life.

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