Investing

Will this impact your actions over the next few months? 2008, Inflation, Reverse Repos

  • Last Updated:
  • Aug 2nd, 2021 10:45 am
[OP]
Deal Addict
Apr 5, 2017
1357 posts
1212 upvotes
Edmonton, AB

Will this impact your actions over the next few months? 2008, Inflation, Reverse Repos

Lets see the inflation numbers for July come out in 10 days.







I will definitely be keeping an extremely close eye on the next while. Throw in 4th wave COVID in to the mix. Epic financial movies and documentaries will be made on what will be unfolding soon as well as what has already happened during the pandemic.

Anyone hedging with AMC/GME? Well, 400+ institutions apparently are both long and bullish on simply holding shares of each. They know what's coming. Compare that to just 42 institutions on the wrong side of the bet who will be trillion(s) underwater. Keep holding the good hold, and hope good fortune for all.
5 replies
Deal Expert
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Dec 12, 2009
25236 posts
14970 upvotes
Toronto
I stay the course.
Koodo $40/6GB
Public Mobile $40/15GB, lot less with rewards
Fido $0.00/4GB+tablet
Tangerine Bank, EQ Bank, Simplii
Deal Addict
Dec 8, 2020
1145 posts
1293 upvotes
S.E corner of Toront…
COVID 4 & variants to be taken seriously.

ignore anything the analysts pipe up because it changes daily.

AMC & GME to drop 50% from their current levels at some point during the remainder of 2021.

BTC up at least 25% from current levels before end 2021.

DOW, S&P & Nasdaq will each finish 2021 +20%
Deal Addict
Nov 9, 2013
4814 posts
5398 upvotes
Edmonton, AB
Is this the brother in law 3.0? Paging @SickBeast.

OP I think you should read Howard Marks' latest memo - Thinking about Macro
It may be hard to admit – to yourself or to others – that you don’t know what the macro future holds, but in areas entailing great uncertainty, agnosticism is probably wiser than self-delusion.
As usual, media commentators stand ready to explain in a logical fashion why the markets did what they did (I always wonder where they look to get the explanation). They’re also glad to tell us what that means for the future, invariably through extrapolation.
Since 2000, the median analyst forecast has called for an average yearly return on the S&P 500 of 9.5%, whereas the actual average gain was 6.0%. You might say, “not bad, only off by 3.5 percentage points.” Or you might say, “terrible – the forecasters overestimated the average gain by 58% (9.5/6.0 - 1).”

“Each December since 2000, the median forecast never called for a stock market decline over the course of the following calendar year . . .” (emphasis added). And yet the stock market lost money in six of those years.

“In 2018, for example, the market fell 6.9 percent, though the forecasters said it would rise 7.5 percent, a spread of 14.4 percentage points. In 2002, the forecast called for an increase of 12.5 percent, but stocks fell 23.3 percent, a spread of almost 36 percentage points.”

“All told, when gaps like that are taken into account, the median Wall Street forecast from 2000 through 2020 missed its target by an average 12.9* percentage points — which was more than double the [6.0%] actual average annual performance of the stock market. Year after year, these forecasts are about as accurate as those of a weatherman who always calls for balmy sunshine in a city where it rains or snows about 30 percent of the time. Some forecasts!”
I’ve concluded... it makes little sense to significantly reduce market exposure on the basis of inflation predictions that may or may not come true; in the face of some very positive counterarguments; and
when the most important rule in investing is that we should commit for the long run, remaining fully invested unless the evidence to the contrary is absolutely compelling.
Buy quality. Keep calm and go long
Deal Guru
User avatar
Sep 21, 2007
11376 posts
9707 upvotes
Winnipeg
just invest in fundamentals mainly and you'll be fine. Numbers don't lie lmao.
"An essential aspect of creativity is not being afraid to fail." -- Edward Land

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