Personal Finance

With the XL pipeline cancelled - will $CAD drop?

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  • Jan 26th, 2021 9:08 pm
Member
Jul 8, 2017
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With the XL pipeline cancelled - will $CAD drop?

With the XL pipeline being cancelled by Biden, how will CAD dollar do? Will it start to lose value?

I have 6 figures CAD I was planning on converting to USD in late match after my HISA matures, but I may pull out now and convert to USD if its anticipated that CAD will lose strength
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Deal Addict
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Jun 25, 2008
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I don't think it was a surprise to anyone, so wouldn't the market have already priced in the cancellation? Who was shocked by this news, exactly?
Deal Guru
Dec 20, 2018
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MrBigLoad4145 wrote: With the XL pipeline being cancelled by Biden, how will CAD dollar do? Will it start to lose value?

I have 6 figures CAD I was planning on converting to USD in late match after my HISA matures, but I may pull out now and convert to USD if its anticipated that CAD will lose strength
Nope, cad rose and cad has been rising for a while. Usd is likely to continue weakening with the macro picture and it's preferred by the US to have USD weaken a bit with the state of their trade imbalance and economic damage from covid19

Other than the delusional in UCP, cancelation of keystone xl was assumed for a while
Deal Addict
Jul 15, 2009
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MrBigLoad4145 wrote: With the XL pipeline being cancelled by Biden, how will CAD dollar do? Will it start to lose value?

I have 6 figures CAD I was planning on converting to USD in late match after my HISA matures, but I may pull out now and convert to USD if its anticipated that CAD will lose strength
This only works if nobody else in the world knows that Biden cancelled the XL pipeline and, for that matter, that he was elected president. I think some of these secrets might have leaked out in the news.
Member
Mar 31, 2013
346 posts
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Courtenay, BC
I would have to assume the cancellation was baked into the price of TC.......Actually, I wonder if Biden's election may actually be good for the energy industry in Canada. If his bonehead green policies cause the decimation of their domestic energy industry, the price of oil and gas will rise. Once the COVID bs is over, their energy demand will skyrocket and they will need it from somewhere, and they will get it, no matter the price........look for loooong trains heading south!
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Jul 30, 2012
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phantomfj wrote: I would have to assume the cancellation was baked into the price of TC.......Actually, I wonder if Biden's election may actually be good for the energy industry in Canada. If his bonehead green policies cause the decimation of their domestic energy industry, the price of oil and gas will rise. Once the COVID bs is over, their energy demand will skyrocket and they will need it from somewhere, and they will get it, no matter the price........look for loooong trains heading south!
Answer: Yes... I was buying CDN oil mid-caps in Oct assuming BIDEN WOULD WIN (up well over +100% since). Green policy looks to be more than political with KXL and Biden is anticipated to cancel drilling licences on US domestic Gov't lands. $USD has nothing to do with the screen blip of KXL cancellation.

KXL was always a pledge to the left wing in the Democratic party to cancel. Despite Biden saying repeatedly he would repeal Trump's executive order on KXL, UCP in AB insisted on $1.5B in tax payer support to TC Energy. The only one not in the know here would appear to have been the Alberta Gov't.
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May 16, 2017
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DealRNothing wrote: Answer: Yes... I was buying CDN oil mid-caps in Oct assuming BIDEN WOULD WIN (up well over +100% since). Green policy looks to be more than political with KXL and Biden is anticipated to cancel drilling licences on US domestic Gov't lands. $USD has nothing to do with the screen blip of KXL cancellation.

KXL was always a pledge to the left wing in the Democratic party to cancel. Despite Biden saying repeatedly he would repeal Trump's executive order on KXL, UCP in AB insisted on $1.5B in tax payer support to TC Energy. The only one not in the know here would appear to have been the Alberta Gov't.
Given the number of Trumpian delusionists in the Alberta gov't and populace, the probability of a Biden win was probably fully discounted. The fact that the Alberta gov't had undertaken an utterly useless and wasteful inquiry into "Anti-Alberta Energy Campaigns" based primarily upon the unsubstantiated and poorly researched rantings of self-proclaimed journalist (not!) blogger makes the decision-making rational of the UPC questionable at best.

That said, the US doesn't really need our oil at this time, and there is enough capacity to accomodate the demand (less efficiently, but still available) for quite a while. Does put more pressure on the Transmountain expansion through BC.
Deal Guru
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Jun 1, 2006
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The Trans Mountain pipeline has become more valuable because of the closure of Keystone. So it will be easier to sell Transmountain and the Cdn government will likely recoup its cost of buying.
Have a nice day!


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Mar 14, 2014
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MikeMontrealer wrote: I don't think it was a surprise to anyone, so wouldn't the market have already priced in the cancellation? Who was shocked by this news, exactly?
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney.
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Jul 30, 2012
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LonesomeDove wrote: The Trans Mountain pipeline has become more valuable because of the closure of Keystone. So it will be easier to sell Transmountain and the Cdn government will likely recoup its cost of buying.
No, Gov'ts of all levels are bad at making deals. TMP is expected to cost $12.6B (up from $7B) due to blockades, delays, etc. If they ever get it built, the acquirer will offer likely less than 50c on the $1 from the absurd price the Libs paid for the "right" to build a new pipeline. Justin could care less whether TMP ever gets built. The buy-in provided optics to show the Feds were "doing something on energy" but really has just led to a drag on development, lack of protest enforcement, etc.

No gov't will care until too late when voter energy bills will be absurdly high due to a lack of fossil or renewable energy options. Race to the bottom now, as no investment in the non-renewable sector and no real gov't money to build out the renewable power grid.
Deal Expert
Oct 7, 2010
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DealRNothing wrote: No, Gov'ts of all levels are bad at making deals. TMP is expected to cost $12.6B (up from $7B) due to blockades, delays, etc. If they ever get it built, the acquirer will offer likely less than 50c on the $1 from the absurd price the Libs paid for the "right" to build a new pipeline. Justin could care less whether TMP ever gets built. The buy-in provided optics to show the Feds were "doing something on energy" but really has just led to a drag on development, lack of protest enforcement, etc.

No gov't will care until too late when voter energy bills will be absurdly high due to a lack of fossil or renewable energy options. Race to the bottom now, as no investment in the non-renewable sector and no real gov't money to build out the renewable power grid.
That would be mainly a western provinces problem as Quebec is mostly hydro powered.
Deal Expert
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Oct 26, 2003
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Winnipeg
StatsGuy wrote: Nope, cad rose and cad has been rising for a while. Usd is likely to continue weakening with the macro picture and it's preferred by the US to have USD weaken a bit with the state of their trade imbalance and economic damage from covid19

Other than the delusional in UCP, cancelation of keystone xl was assumed for a while
I accept the reality that Canada will never build another pipeline and Quebec will never contribute net into the transfer payments, when will Alberta accept that?
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Oct 26, 2003
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spike1128 wrote: That would be mainly a western provinces problem as Quebec is mostly hydro powered.
If Alberta goes bankrupt who will pay for Quebec? Ontario already lost its manufacturing. Or are you suggesting Quebec can pay for themselves?
Deal Guru
Dec 20, 2018
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divx wrote: If Alberta goes bankrupt who will pay for Quebec? Ontario already lost its manufacturing. Or are you suggesting Quebec can pay for themselves?
Ontario and Quebec are paying for the endless subsidies to the prairies already and economic engine of the country
Alberta has been net recipient of state welfare for a few years and forseeable future and have no plans to shift it's economy like Ontario had to do when manufacturing left to lower cost jurisdiction

Alberta is dreaming of 2014 peak oil prices will help it out and is in denial still.

rest of country (Quebec, ontario, BC) will have to continue the western provinces as they go through probably a few decades of rehab to ween them off the petrobucks as the world moves forward
Deal Addict
Jul 30, 2012
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DealRNothing wrote: No, Gov'ts of all levels are bad at making deals. TMP is expected to cost $12.6B (up from $7B) due to blockades, delays, etc. If they ever get it built, the acquirer will offer likely less than 50c on the $1 from the absurd price the Libs paid for the "right" to build a new pipeline. Justin could care less whether TMP ever gets built. The buy-in provided optics to show the Feds were "doing something on energy" but really has just led to a drag on development, lack of protest enforcement, etc.

No gov't will care until too late when voter energy bills will be absurdly high due to a lack of fossil or renewable energy options. Race to the bottom now, as no investment in the non-renewable sector and no real gov't money to build out the renewable power grid.
spike1128 wrote: That would be mainly a western provinces problem as Quebec is mostly hydro powered.
The delusion at all levels is the thinking that eliminating carbon energy will somehow make renewable energy readily available and cheap. The reality is both forms of energy are headed towards mass consumer price increases and limited supply. Renewable as adoption increases and supply becomes scarce (EV's, etc) and Non-renewable as investment dries up.
Deal Expert
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Oct 26, 2003
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DealRNothing wrote: The delusion at all levels is the thinking that eliminating carbon energy will somehow make renewable energy readily available and cheap. The reality is both forms of energy are headed towards mass consumer price increases and limited supply. Renewable as adoption increases and supply becomes scarce (EV's, etc) and Non-renewable as investment dries up.
I'm still waiting these so called green jobs that will replace all the carbon jobs. But don't let that stop the States from producing all those carbon jobs.
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Oct 26, 2003
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StatsGuy wrote: Ontario and Quebec are paying for the endless subsidies to the prairies already and economic engine of the country
Alberta has been net recipient of state welfare for a few years and forseeable future and have no plans to shift it's economy like Ontario had to do when manufacturing left to lower cost jurisdiction
Alberta is dreaming of 2014 peak oil prices will help it out and is in denial still.
rest of country (Quebec, ontario, BC) will have to continue the western provinces as they go through probably a few decades of rehab to ween them off the petrobucks as the world moves forward
Name these subsidies you kept referring to that Ontario and Quebec would never get.
Deal Addict
Sep 11, 2006
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No more XL, maybe XS. Canada shouldn't have put its basket on oil, it needs to be more than some random lackey country to the US
Deal Expert
Feb 24, 2007
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divx wrote: I'm still waiting these so called green jobs that will replace all the carbon jobs. But don't let that stop the States from producing all those carbon jobs.
Delusional Left and their Green New Deal leading the country into bankruptcy. I just have to remind myself of the success complete failure by our ex-Premier, Kathleen Wynn, and green energy. Ontarians will be paying for that little green project for decades to come and remove the competitive edge to our already ailing manufacturing.

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