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AC.B - Air Canada

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  • Aug 13th, 2025 8:41 pm
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faken wrote: it's pretty high if you look at how much of the margin it's cutting to profits. The gates are not fully at 2019 levels yet.. and the average price for WTI was $56.99.. we are just shy of $70..
There are going to some strike votes in 2025 as well. Look for disruptions to affect ticket sales. The new collective agreement will work its way into costs.
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faken wrote: it's pretty high if you look at how much of the margin it's cutting to profits. The gates are not fully at 2019 levels yet.. and the average price for WTI was $56.99.. we are just shy of $70..
Compared to 2019, it's not that high. Labour is a bigger factor. Regardless, they are in a good position especially considering cash flow
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xgbsSS wrote: Compared to 2019, it's not that high. Labour is a bigger factor. Regardless, they are in a good position especially considering cash flow
Oh, I'm not saying it will go down.. I'm just saying.. if oil was lower, it would go HIGHER faster.. btw, it's in the same situation as CHR.
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faken wrote: Oh, I'm not saying it will go down.. I'm just saying.. if oil was lower, it would go HIGHER faster.. btw, it's in the same situation as CHR.
Market sentiment is a bigger factor for AC then actual financial data
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xgbsSS wrote: Market sentiment is a bigger factor for AC then actual financial data
AC has a bit of a meme element.
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AC wants to play in the same sandbox as the Flair. No issues with charging for carry ons and seat selection. The base fare better be close to what the discounters charge. No impact for me, I would take Porter wherever they fly and drive where they don't.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/air-can ... -1.7133426
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jerryhung wrote: People give WestJet crap about UltraBasic fares with no carry-on
and now AC joins WestJet, race to the bottom
I think AC would frame it as a competitive response to WestJet. Face With Tears Of Joy
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will888 wrote: AC wants to play in the same sandbox as the Flair. No issues with charging for carry ons and seat selection. The base fare better be close to what the discounters charge. No impact for me, I would take Porter wherever they fly and drive where they don't.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/air-can ... -1.7133426
Might be hard to drive to Frankfurt.


I started selling off at 22, but kept the majority and sold around 25. Bought in around 15-16ish, forget the average. I have ridden the down and up wave of AC a few times and it has made me great money, Averaged 45% this time. Long term I think there's gonna be a big down for them now. I wouldn't buy in now and would recommend selling. If you want the journey you can buy in sub 18.
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The results must be logarithmic. How else could AC get ranked 29th while Quantas, Air NZ and KLM are just ahead has me baffled. I'd take anyone of those three ahead of AC any day. If you can't read this, get a sub and don't break forum rules.


Sold-out Toronto concert cancelled after Air Canada refuses seat for musician’s cello
theglobeandmail.com/arts/music/article-air-canada-cello-seat-refusal/

They then booked three seats – two for them, one for the cello – on an Air Canada afternoon flight that would get them here just in time for their concert at Koerner Hall. But when it came time to board, an Air Canada gate agent would not allow Kanneh-Mason’s cello on the plane.


With the duo stuck in Cincinnati, an eight-hour drive from Toronto, their concert here was called off.


“It’s very frustrating,” the 25-year-old cellist said from Philadelphia, where the duo performs Friday. “The process of flying with a cello can be complicated, but when the process works, it’s great. When it doesn’t, it can be devastating.”


According to Air Canada’s website, seats can be purchased for musical instruments at a 50-per-cent discount. The airline also suggests confirming such a booking at least 48 hours prior to departure, which wasn’t possible in this case given the last-minute rebooking.

The instrument, made in 1700 by Venetian luthier Matteo Goffriller, is worth millions of dollars, according to the cellist, and is on loan to him. Because of its value and fragility, stowing it in the baggage hold wasn’t an option.
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MrMom wrote: The results must be logarithmic. How else could AC get ranked 29th while Quantas, Air NZ and KLM are just ahead has me baffled. I'd take anyone of those three ahead of AC any day. If you can't read this, get a sub and don't break forum rules.


Sold-out Toronto concert cancelled after Air Canada refuses seat for musician’s cello
theglobeandmail.com/arts/music/article-air-canada-cello-seat-refusal/

They then booked three seats – two for them, one for the cello – on an Air Canada afternoon flight that would get them here just in time for their concert at Koerner Hall. But when it came time to board, an Air Canada gate agent would not allow Kanneh-Mason’s cello on the plane.


With the duo stuck in Cincinnati, an eight-hour drive from Toronto, their concert here was called off.


“It’s very frustrating,” the 25-year-old cellist said from Philadelphia, where the duo performs Friday. “The process of flying with a cello can be complicated, but when the process works, it’s great. When it doesn’t, it can be devastating.”


According to Air Canada’s website, seats can be purchased for musical instruments at a 50-per-cent discount. The airline also suggests confirming such a booking at least 48 hours prior to departure, which wasn’t possible in this case given the last-minute rebooking.

The instrument, made in 1700 by Venetian luthier Matteo Goffriller, is worth millions of dollars, according to the cellist, and is on loan to him. Because of its value and fragility, stowing it in the baggage hold wasn’t an option.
I have so many opinions on this story. But this all going to OT. Next time do not do last minute booking. travel last mile by road. Go to Buffalo or Detroit. Your show is all booked. so think about them first before giving sufficient time. I blame the musician. Things in life don't work the way you want. end of OT.

At least my AC shares have better profits now.
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MattyMattMatt wrote: Might be hard to drive to Frankfurt.


I started selling off at 22, but kept the majority and sold around 25. Bought in around 15-16ish, forget the average. I have ridden the down and up wave of AC a few times and it has made me great money, Averaged 45% this time. Long term I think there's gonna be a big down for them now. I wouldn't buy in now and would recommend selling. If you want the journey you can buy in sub 18.
I think things are just getting started. I did sell to reset my ACB, and rebought. There may be short term drops from people repositioning, but I am confident in a more sustained increase moving forward.

AC is still extremely cheap. PE is still under 5. Cashflow is insane. Fuel prices are tapering off further. There is a generational change in how travel is seen as an important need rather than frivolous. AC while has gone up, hasn't even met the increases seen by other players like Delta and United who weren't even as cheap as AC. The buybacks are further adding value to each share.

IMO a fair value is about $30 for the next 6 months. I believe Investor Day next week will give better insight to their strategy here and we may see some investors moving in. NCIB is almost 1/3 done and at the rate it's going, they will complete their maximum purchases in a few months. Excess cash flow will likely then be directed toward deleveraging. And as competitors are struggling (Flair I think won't survive, Westjet cancelled their 787 orders which they probably regret) with the only aggressive competitor being Porter, AC is in a great competitive position moving forward.
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MattyMattMatt wrote: Might be hard to drive to Frankfurt.


I started selling off at 22, but kept the majority and sold around 25. Bought in around 15-16ish, forget the average. I have ridden the down and up wave of AC a few times and it has made me great money, Averaged 45% this time. Long term I think there's gonna be a big down for them now. I wouldn't buy in now and would recommend selling. If you want the journey you can buy in sub 18.
Condor is an option for flights to Frankfurt. Face With Tears Of Joy
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@callernamet You didn't read the entire article.
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will888 wrote: Condor is an option for flights to Frankfurt. Face With Tears Of Joy
Condor is actually pretty nice. The neo planes are good, but I would string for their economy plus or whatever.

xgbsSS wrote: I think things are just getting started. I did sell to reset my ACB, and rebought. There may be short term drops from people repositioning, but I am confident in a more sustained increase moving forward.

AC is still extremely cheap. PE is still under 5. Cashflow is insane. Fuel prices are tapering off further. There is a generational change in how travel is seen as an important need rather than frivolous. AC while has gone up, hasn't even met the increases seen by other players like Delta and United who weren't even as cheap as AC. The buybacks are further adding value to each share.

IMO a fair value is about $30 for the next 6 months. I believe Investor Day next week will give better insight to their strategy here and we may see some investors moving in. NCIB is almost 1/3 done and at the rate it's going, they will complete their maximum purchases in a few months. Excess cash flow will likely then be directed toward deleveraging. And as competitors are struggling (Flair I think won't survive, Westjet cancelled their 787 orders which they probably regret) with the only aggressive competitor being Porter, AC is in a great competitive position moving forward.
I don't necessarily disagree with what you are saying, but with the way it works with AC, I don't see that 30 happening. I will be back in six months to discuss. Or maybe earlier, we'll see. Maybe I missed out on doubling my money, but risks are risks you calculate.
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MrMom wrote: @callernamet You didn't read the entire article.
I only read what was posted. And I still believe if you are carrying such items and sold out concert then need planing. Prepare for unforeseen issues.And sold-out concert. But as I said all OT. so.
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jerryhung wrote: AC -8% to $22.x

$25 seems far away again
but good thing Fed gov't sold at the top :P
can they be investigated for insider trading? lol.
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callernamet wrote: can they be investigated for insider trading? lol.
It's traders wanting short terms gains and then selling off, triggering stop losses.

The numbers AC released in guidance IMO are purposely vague and conservative here. Not guided in 2024, however it has been fairly strong. A large amount of future cashflow is earmarked for investments as per their presentation.
I think there are some legit concerns around the strategy though as there are risks in pulling it off and reduced guidance on free cash is not confidence boosting to investors looking at that as the cushion. The liability guidance for the future is maintain net debt under x2 EBITDA which is double current amounts, but again, upto, doesn't mean they are taking on more debt.

NCIB is still maxing out with nearly 15 million shares already bought as of last Friday and since announcing this in November getting over 1/3 of the maximum for the year. The guidance is showing target in the future to having less than 300 million outstanding shares which is also a positive.

The short to mid term outlook for AC is still very positive and shares still have room to grow in my opinion. Today's sell off is overdone, but is technically good for the NCIB haha.
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