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AC.B - Air Canada

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  • Aug 13th, 2025 8:41 pm
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xgbsSS wrote: It's traders wanting short terms gains and then selling off, triggering stop losses.

The numbers AC released in guidance IMO are purposely vague and conservative here. Not guided in 2024, however it has been fairly strong. A large amount of future cashflow is earmarked for investments as per their presentation.
I think there are some legit concerns around the strategy though as there are risks in pulling it off and reduced guidance on free cash is not confidence boosting to investors looking at that as the cushion. The liability guidance for the future is maintain net debt under x2 EBITDA which is double current amounts, but again, upto, doesn't mean they are taking on more debt.

NCIB is still maxing out with nearly 15 million shares already bought as of last Friday and since announcing this in November getting over 1/3 of the maximum for the year. The guidance is showing target in the future to having less than 300 million outstanding shares which is also a positive.

The short to mid term outlook for AC is still very positive and shares still have room to grow in my opinion. Today's sell off is overdone, but is technically good for the NCIB haha.
OK. But my comment was did Canadian government had inside knowledge for selling its stake? And then AC share drops? Lets forget kidding part if that really happens can Government be investigated for insider trading? really I want to know.
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callernamet wrote: OK. But my comment was did Canadian government had inside knowledge for selling its stake? And then AC share drops? Lets forget kidding part if that really happens can Government be investigated for insider trading? really I want to know.
haha no. Besides market reaction to this news and investor day is just random. Honestly was expecting more bullish reaction and sentiment.
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LOL Is our Drama teacher and his latest drama is responsible for all this downhill? watching the drama on CBC live. Or is market that shocked with uncertainty?

21.49 CAD Today's Change-0.23decrease-1.06%
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About to break $20 here I see high $18.xx by late next week but how low is anyone's guess. Trump x travel = concern

My best thoughts. Mid-March we breech $16, so maybe we'll just set a ~3month buy at $15.85 and forget about it
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Diesel45 wrote: About to break $20 here I see high $18.xx by late next week but how low is anyone's guess. Trump x travel = concern

My best thoughts. Mid-March we breech $16, so maybe we'll just set a ~3month buy at $15.85 and forget about it
Hope you got some below 20! I missed it and got above it.
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AC has maxed their buyback everyday since the announcement except for a single day. At this rate, the NCIB is maximized for the year in February.
At these lower levels, compared to the $24-25 per share they were still buying at, Air Canada will save easily $150-200 million in this NCIB. The current price average is hovering above $22.
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Timely

BNN top pick
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2 ... 2amk007caf

Air Canada (AC TSX)

AC.TO has recovered from the pandemic but the stock hasn’t. I see tremendous upside over the next few years as confidence recovers. Air Canada stock could double as it was trading over $50/share five years ago. Revenue is about 12 per cent higher than 2019, debt is similar and there are seven to eight per cent more shares. I was at a conference last week where they presented, and the outlook is very favourable. New Airbus 220’s are allowing more access to more U.S. cities which can also feed the trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific routes. Air travel remains a growing part of Canadians' budgets. 2024 reported earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be approaching $6 a share so it’s selling at four times. With my favourable view on the economic outlook, Air Canada should be a three-to-five-year winner.
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jerryhung wrote: Timely

BNN top pick
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2 ... 2amk007caf

Air Canada (AC TSX)

AC.TO has recovered from the pandemic but the stock hasn’t. I see tremendous upside over the next few years as confidence recovers. Air Canada stock could double as it was trading over $50/share five years ago. Revenue is about 12 per cent higher than 2019, debt is similar and there are seven to eight per cent more shares. I was at a conference last week where they presented, and the outlook is very favourable. New Airbus 220’s are allowing more access to more U.S. cities which can also feed the trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific routes. Air travel remains a growing part of Canadians' budgets. 2024 reported earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be approaching $6 a share so it’s selling at four times. With my favourable view on the economic outlook, Air Canada should be a three-to-five-year winner.
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Don't own or trade AC but use as part of Macro assessment(s). Weaker guidance is what I was expecting...Looks like best results in the rear view mirror as YoY results trending down (EBITDA, EPS, FCF) and muted '25 guidance.

Like most cyclicals, selling is usually best done at peak earnings (low valuation ratios). The outstanding revenue wildcard could be a (partial) offset of international vacation travel to Canada as a potential international US boycott. I expect a majority of staycations (muted domestic travel with significant seat sales, i.e. lower airline revenues) for Canadians this year, though.

Air Canada Q4/FY '24 Results
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AC stock crashing like a Delta/Bombardier CRJ900LR jet trying to land on an icy tarmac here

ps ... too soon for plane crash humour?!?
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Diesel45 wrote: AC stock crashing like a Delta/Bombardier CRJ900LR jet trying to land on an icy tarmac here

ps ... too soon for plane crash humour?!?
Child in sick kids in critical condition? As a parent, yeah might be a little too soon...
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Diesel45 wrote: AC stock crashing like a Delta/Bombardier CRJ900LR jet trying to land on an icy tarmac here

ps ... too soon for plane crash humour?!?
Dude? really? Thank god no one died but you couldn't wait even 24 hrs? Mods wont punish but watch out or Karma.

And now I have no interest in buying more AC.
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callernamet wrote: Dude? really? Thank god no one died but you couldn't wait even 24 hrs? Mods wont punish but watch out or Karma.

And now I have no interest in buying more AC.

Relax, nobody died and the 'child' is listed in good condition
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kr0zet wrote: Child in sick kids in critical condition? As a parent, yeah might be a little too soon...
Take as a precautionary measure and listed in good condition. I really hate when people play the 'SickKids' or 'as a parent' card for dramatic affect

They took him/her to the hospital to be checked, just as they should have .. and just like they would for any other person on the plane if they require help
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Diesel45 wrote: Take as a precautionary measure and listed in good condition. I really hate when people play the 'SickKids' or 'as a parent' card for dramatic affect

They took him/her to the hospital to be checked, just as they should have .. and just like they would for any other person on the plane if they require help
I don't care either way, but if you knew that the joke might be "too soon" as per your quote, not sure why you are surprised some might be offended.
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Kaplano wrote: Bought a little bit today around $17 and change. I wish I bought more, though.
I added a few token shares from my dividends I earned from other stocks, haha.
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